Creedence Clearwater Revival, prison reform, employment services, and a Pantera metal classic

Spotify’s algorithm nailed it this morning as I dropped the kids off in the pouring rain, as Creedence Clearwater Revival played “Have you ever seen the rain”. Yes, I have seen the rain, and it is here. Again.

The Starmer government, a few days in, also appears to be nailing it.

A number of pragmatic, solution focused Ministers have been appointed that give hope to the reform minded. Perhaps the most eye-catching is James Timpson as Minister for Prisons – a prominent advocate for justice reform, who’s stated that a third of prisoners shouldn’t be there and a further third where prison has been a disaster. And Liz Kendall, Work and Pensions Secretary and former Blairite, who has set out as Shadow Minister that ‘if you can work, there will be no option of a life on benefits’.

The challenges facing both Ministers are substantial. Unsustainable volume pressures including the rising prison population and dramatic increases in the economically inactive; the balance between consistent national services vs local, community-led initiatives; material budget pressures with limited headroom to invest; large, complex and expensive legacy IT systems; and the need to balance short-term commissioning decisions vs long-term system reform.

It is unlikely that Timpson has a choice but to proceed with the new prison operator framework in early 2025. There is a need for new prison places now – regardless of any long-term sentencing reforms and shift from custodial to community sentences. The Framework also enables a shift towards modern, green and digital prisons, and one can hope the eventual closure of Victorian misery sites, such as HMP Wandsworth.  

Timpson has an opportunity to review and repurpose the £200m community rehabilitation services which has been delayed until 2025. But I would suggest this is very much sticking plaster levels of investment if there is to be a sea change in the balance between custodial and community rehabilitation.  

Devolution offers opportunities to both Timpson and Kendall to deliver differently, with a far greater role for Combined Authorities across employment and community/probation services. This will work well in areas such as Greater Manchester, with the capacity and capability to design and commission new services, but other city regions, lacking in resources will struggle in comparison. And what of non-combined authority areas? How do coastal areas of Britain and struggling northern towns outside of core city regions access and benefit from the same devolution?

How bold does Kendall want to be in reforming functional assessments to reduce the flow onto sickness related benefits? Will Universal Support (or a rebadged version of) be delivered at any meaningful scale? And can national mandatory programmes co-exist effectively with locally commissioned voluntary provision?

Given these challenges, I wonder if Spotify’s algorithm will be playing Pantera’s 90’s metal classic Clash with Reality anytime soon…