The Criminal Justice System: Navigating through a potential crisis
The new Government has inherited a criminal justice system that is widely perceived to be in crisis. Figures released show a record high prison population just days before the introduction of a temporary release scheme.
Wider Policy Implications
Temporary early release can only be viewed as a short-term solution to relieve pressure on the system. Releasing 3,000 prisoners on early release puts extra pressure on community services which are already stretched to capacity due to budgetary cuts and proposed savings. Central and Local Government now need to consider longer term solutions.
What are the Options Available?
The previous Government embarked on a policy of building new prisons and modernising the existing estate to increase capacity. This included building two additional prisons which are currently delayed by planning processes. In addition, the Ministry of Justice started market engagement for the new Prison Operator Services Framework Agreement (POSF) in 2024, which is designed to deliver greater value for money and innovation in the prison system. Given the current environment, the Government is likely to proceed with both policy strategies.
Impact on Commissioned Rehabilitative Services (CRS)
The Probation Service is under pressure following a failed attempt at privatisation. A report by the former Chief Inspector of Probation (2023) highlighted under-staffing, disjointed service integration, high caseloads and insufficient funding as key issues. This suggests there is insufficient capacity to absorb and safely manage over 3,000 new releases. CRS contracts expire next year. Given current challenges, more funding is required to support ex-offenders in the community.
The Government is wedded to deeper devolution and harnessing greater integration between local partners, especially across health, skills and employment. Devolving Probation beyond Greater Manchester and London will take a strong political will.
Market Implications
Despite policy uncertainties, there are still likely to be opportunities for organisations to support Government ambitions at a national and local level. Collaborating with likeminded organisations with different skill sets will be crucial in accessing opportunities and demonstrating a wider, more robust offer. The key is to understand the complex landscape and map out where you can make a difference. We envisage opportunities emerging in the following areas:
Partnering with Prison Operators as part of the new Prison Operator Framework expected in 2025 with call-off prisons forecast over the next seven years;
Re-commissioned Community Rehabilitation Services in Spring 2025 albeit the design, scope and scale are under review;
Engaging with Combined Authorities who have the capacity and capability to deliver devolved Probation Services.
If you’d like to discuss any of the above in more detail, please contact
david@50-degrees.com or Matt@50-degrees.com